The Outlier Lab

Model Risk Management

Applying model risk management to fraud models after SR 26-2 replaced SR 11-7 in April 2026: inventory, materiality tiering, validation, drift monitoring, vendor models, explainability, and where GenAI sits.

Core components

What changed in 2026

TopicSR 11-7 (2011)SR 26-2 / OCC 2026-13 (2026)
StatusSupervisory guidance, widely treated as the standardExplicitly non-binding; non-compliance alone does not trigger supervisory criticism (unsafe practices still can)
ApplicabilityBroadly applied, including smaller banks"Most relevant" to banking organizations over $30B in total assets, or smaller ones with significant model risk
Model definitionQuantitative method using statistical, economic, financial or mathematical theories; included qualitative-input approaches with quantitative outputA complex quantitative method grounded in statistical, economic or financial theory; excludes simple arithmetic and deterministic rule-based processes
Risk tieringImplicitExplicit: inherent risk plus materiality (exposure and purpose) drive the rigor of oversight; immaterial models may need only monitoring
ValidationConceptual soundness, ongoing monitoring, outcomes analysis; detailed techniquesThe same three components, described briefly; approach varies by model; generally validate before use, with controls if urgent early use is needed
Effective challengeIncentives, competence, influenceExpertise, independence, standing to effect change
Vendor modelsCovered within the guidanceStandalone section: principles apply even when the bank can't fully see inside; customizations documented and justified
BSA/AML modelsSeparate 2021 interagency statement (SR 21-8 / OCC 2021-19)SR 21-8 superseded, with no replacement
Generative and agentic AINot addressedExplicitly excluded; the agencies plan a request for information on AI

Which fraud artifacts are "models"?

ArtifactLikely classificationGovernance home
Supervised ML fraud score (GBM, neural net)ModelMRM
Vendor risk score (device, identity, consortium)Model (third-party)MRM, plus vendor management (see Vendor Selection and Evaluation)
Graph-based risk propagation scoresModelMRM
Anomaly detection (unsupervised)ModelMRM; outcomes analysis is harder
Rules with hand-set thresholdsNot a model (deterministic)Rule governance (see Rule Governance and Change Management)
Rules with statistically optimized thresholdsGray area; document your classificationRule governance, with MRM-style review if material
Score thresholds applied to a modelPart of model useMRM (use) + rule governance (configuration)
GenAI case summarization, agentic investigation assistantsExcluded from SR 26-2 scopeBroader risk management / AI governance; QA (see Fraud QA Program)

How to build it

Model inventory

Minimum fields: model ID, name, purpose, money path and decision point, owner, developer (internal or vendor), materiality tier, status, inputs and data sources, output and how it's used (thresholds, actions), validation date and findings, monitoring dashboard, known limitations, dependencies (which other models or rules consume it).

SR 26-2 also asks for an aggregate view: models that share data, features or assumptions can fail together. A device-reputation vendor outage that degrades three fraud models at once is aggregate model risk.

Materiality tiering (illustrative)

TierCriteriaValidation depthMonitoring
HighDrives automated declines or holds on high-value money paths; large share of volume; regulatory relevanceFull independent review before production; revalidation on material change and periodicallyDaily/weekly automated monitoring; monthly review
MediumDrives review routing or step-up; moderate exposureFocused reviewWeekly/monthly
LowFlags, features or analytics with no direct actionLight reviewPeriodic checks to catch growing materiality

Validation for fraud models

Conceptual soundness

  • Is the target definition right? (Which fraud types, and what label sources and maturity windows? See Fraud Labeling and Feedback Loops.)
  • Is the training data representative? Is it biased by existing controls? Fraud that was blocked never got labeled.
  • Features available at decision time (no leakage)?
  • Are features appropriate on privacy and fairness grounds (see Privacy and Data Use in Fraud Prevention)?

Outcomes analysis

  • Performance on out-of-time samples with matured labels
  • Dollar-weighted metrics (dollar recall, dollar precision) alongside counts
  • Performance by segment: tenure, geography, product, channel
  • Comparison against a benchmark (current production model, or rules)
  • Counterfactual performance from holdouts where available (see Experimentation and Champion-Challenger)

Ongoing monitoring

  • Input drift: feature distributions, null rates, vendor signal availability
  • Score drift: distribution shift, share above thresholds
  • Outcome drift: precision and recall as labels mature
  • Operational: latency, timeouts, fallback rates (see Real-Time Decisioning Architecture)
  • Adversarial adaptation: sudden drops in catch on a segment, or attack volume moving to just below a threshold

Effective challenge

SR 26-2 frames effective challenge around expertise, independence and standing. Practical options by size:

OrganizationWho challenges
Large bankSecond-line MRM / validation team
Mid-size fintech with sponsor bankInternal DS peer review by someone not on the model team, plus periodic external validation; sponsor bank review
Small companyPeer review by a DS or senior strategist not involved in building it; external review for high-materiality models

Vendor models

  • Ask for development documentation, performance evidence on populations like yours, known limitations, and change notifications
  • Validate on your data: backtest, then shadow, before relying on it (see Vendor Selection and Evaluation)
  • Monitor outputs continuously; vendor model updates can shift your score distribution overnight
  • Document any customization: thresholds, overlays, feature selections
  • Contract for change notice, performance reporting and audit cooperation

Explainability

  • Reason codes for customer-facing actions and support scripts
  • Analyst-facing explanations (top contributing features) in the review UI, so analysts can judge whether a score makes sense before acting on it
  • Model documentation a validator can follow
  • Be careful about what you expose. Detailed explanations given to customers can teach attackers what to change. Keep customer messaging general.

Generative and agentic AI

SR 26-2 excludes GenAI and agentic AI. Fraud teams are adopting them anyway, even as attackers use the same technology against them (see Generative AI and Deepfake Fraud). Common defensive uses: case summarization, narrative drafting, investigation assistants, synthetic data. Govern them under your broader AI or technology risk framework:

  • Inventory them alongside models
  • Human accountability for any decision they inform
  • QA for omissions and invented facts in summaries (see Fraud QA Program)
  • Data access controls and logging
  • Don't let them make money-movement decisions without explicit approval and monitoring

Artifacts and templates

Model documentation outline

  1. Purpose and intended use; decision point and actions
  2. Target definition and label sources; maturity windows
  3. Data: sources, time windows, exclusions, known biases
  4. Features: list, rationale, availability at decision time, privacy review
  5. Methodology and alternatives considered
  6. Performance: out-of-time, by segment, dollar-weighted, vs benchmark
  7. Thresholds and business impact (catch, FPR, review volume, friction)
  8. Limitations and compensating controls
  9. Monitoring plan: metrics, thresholds, owners
  10. Change log
  11. Validation findings and responses

Model change classification

ChangeExampleRequired
MaterialNew features, new algorithm, new target, new populationValidation before deploy; shadow; approval
ModerateRetrain on new data with the same designPerformance comparison vs current; shadow; approval
MinorThreshold adjustment within a pre-approved rangeLogged; post-change monitoring
EmergencyThreshold change during an incidentIC authority; logged; post-incident review

Monitoring dashboard checklist

  • Score distribution vs baseline (PSI or similar)
  • Feature null and out-of-range rates
  • Vendor signal availability
  • Share above each action threshold
  • Precision and recall by maturity cohort
  • Segment-level performance
  • Latency and fallback rates
  • Alert routing to the model owner

Metrics

MetricWhy
Models in inventory with current validationCoverage
Models past validation or review dateHygiene
Open validation findings, by severity and ageRemediation
Monitoring alerts and time to resolutionOngoing control
Performance vs validation baselineDecay
Vendor model changes received with notice vs withoutThird-party control

Pitfalls

  • Validating at launch and never again. Fraud models decay faster than most because adversaries adapt.
  • Count-based metrics only. A model that catches many small frauds and misses the big ones looks fine on AUC.
  • Ignoring the threshold. Most fraud model incidents come from threshold or use changes while the model itself stays the same.
  • Vendor trust without verification. Vendor validation on other clients' data doesn't tell you how the model performs on yours.
  • Black-box review UI. If analysts can't see why a score is high, they either rubber-stamp it or ignore it. Both are model risk.
  • Treating the 2026 guidance as deregulation. It's a chance to tailor. Material fraud models still need rigor.

Sources and further reading