The Outlier Lab

Program

Organizational structures for transaction fraud: operating model, governance, operations, metrics, data, regulation and people.

36 program notes in 7 areas.

Operating model

NoteSummary
Building a Fraud Program from ZeroStanding up transaction fraud defenses at a young company: what the first hire should be, a 30/60/90-day plan, the first controls on each money path, and what to defer.
Cross-Functional PartnershipsHow fraud teams work with product, engineering, growth, support, legal, compliance, finance and payment partners: mutual needs, working agreements, RACI and shared metrics.
Fraud Maturity ModelA five-stage maturity rubric for transaction fraud programs across people, process, data, technology and governance, with concrete markers and a self-assessment you can run in an afternoon.
Fraud Operating ModelHow to organize a transaction fraud function: strategy, operations, analytics, data science, engineering and policy; centralized vs embedded topologies; decision rights, cadences and reporting lines.
Fraud Program OverviewHub for building a transaction fraud program: the components, how they connect along the money path, where to start, and links to every Program note in the vault.
Three Lines of DefenseApplying the IIA Three Lines Model (2020, refreshed 2026) to transaction fraud: who owns, oversees and assures fraud risk, and where fraud, AML and compliance boundaries fall.

Governance

NoteSummary
Experimentation and Champion-ChallengerHow to measure what fraud controls actually prevent: holdouts, control groups, champion-challenger testing, counterfactual fraud estimation, sizing, ethics and guardrails.
Fraud Risk AssessmentHow to run a product- and flow-level transaction fraud risk assessment: scheme inventory by money path, likelihood × impact scoring, control evaluation, residual risk, and appetite-based action.
Fraud Strategy LifecycleThe end-to-end lifecycle of a fraud strategy (hypothesis, analysis, backtest, shadow, launch, monitor, retire) with stage gates, artifacts and the label-maturity traps in between.
Friction and Customer Experience TradeoffsHow to price fraud friction: total cost of fraud, insult rates, the cost of good customers declined or delayed, choosing the cheapest effective action, and governing the friction budget.
Model Risk ManagementApplying model risk management to fraud models after SR 26-2 replaced SR 11-7 in April 2026: inventory, materiality tiering, validation, drift monitoring, vendor models, explainability, and where GenAI sits.
New Product and Promo Launch ReviewA pre-launch fraud review process and checklist for new payment features, funding methods, payout options, offers, promos and referral programs, before value starts moving.
Rule Governance and Change ManagementHow to govern a fraud rule portfolio: inventory fields, materiality tiers, approval paths, documentation, periodic performance review, emergency changes and sunsetting, so rules stay effective and explainable.

Operations

NoteSummary
Alert Review OperationsHow to run fraud alert review: queue design, prioritization, SLAs tied to money movement, capacity and staffing math, workforce management, decision tooling and outsourced review.
Case Documentation StandardsWhat a good fraud case record contains: structured fields, narrative structure, SAR-ready notes, reason codes, retention and access, with copyable templates for alerts, investigations and referrals.
Fraud Incident ResponseHow to run a fraud attack war room: declaration criteria, severity levels, roles, the first-hour checklist, containment levers, communications, regulatory clocks and blameless post-mortems.
Fraud QA ProgramHow to run QA on fraud decisions: sampling with real statistics, rubrics with critical errors, calibration and kappa, appeals, coaching, QA of automated decisions, and routing findings to fixes.
Fraud Tabletop ExercisesDesigning and running tabletop exercises for fraud attacks, logic exploits and payout incidents: objectives, roles, scenario libraries for retail and financial firms, injects, scoring with an exposure clock, and after-action.
Investigation StandardsStandards for transaction fraud investigations: when an alert becomes an investigation, methodology from scoping to conclusion, evidence standards, entity expansion, escalation paths, and handoffs to AML, legal and law enforcement.
SOP Writing StandardsHow to write fraud review SOPs that analysts can follow and QA can score: decision-first structure, evidence requirements, decision matrices, rubric traceability, version control, governance and quality metrics.
Support Team Fraud TrainingHow to train frontline support on social engineering, account changes, payout-destination requests, scam victims and escalation, with a curriculum, scenario drills, QA and metrics.
Threat Intelligence and Horizon ScanningHow to find emerging transaction fraud MOs before they show up in losses: intel sources, information sharing, internal sentinels, red-teaming your own flows, and turning intel into controls.
Workforce Management and Capacity PlanningForecasting fraud alert volume, staffing review and QA teams with queueing math, setting SLAs on the money clock, planning for surges and attacks, and choosing between in-house and outsourced review.

Metrics and measurement

NoteSummary
Exposure Window ModelingQuantifying value-at-risk between when funds become usable and when they become final, by rail, so instant availability can be priced, limited and stress-tested like unsecured credit.
Fraud Labeling and Feedback LoopsWhere fraud labels come from, how long each rail takes to mature, how label noise and selection bias corrupt models, and how to build feedback loops that improve decisions.
Fraud Metrics and KPIsFormulas, denominators and dashboards for measuring a transaction fraud program: loss bps, catch rate, precision, false positives, friction, review load, loss maturity and leading indicators.
Loss Taxonomy and AttributionHow to classify transaction losses (fraud vs credit vs operational, first vs third party, scam vs unauthorized) and attribute each dollar to a mechanism, money path and control gap.

Data and technology

NoteSummary
Entity ResolutionResolving accounts, people, devices, payment instruments and addresses into entities: deterministic and probabilistic matching, blocking, thresholds, households, and avoiding false rings from shared infrastructure.
Fraud Data ArchitectureThe data foundation for transaction fraud: event logging, decision logs, entity resolution, feature stores with point-in-time correctness, graph data, label stores, and retention.
Real-Time Decisioning ArchitectureHow to design fraud decision points on the money path: synchronous vs asynchronous decisions, latency budgets, orchestration of rules, models and vendors, fallbacks, and safe change management.
Vendor Selection and EvaluationHow to decide build vs buy for fraud capabilities, run a proof of concept that measures real lift, test vendor claims, and negotiate contracts that protect data and exit.

Regulatory

NoteSummary
Broker-Dealer Obligations (FINRA and SEC)Fraud-relevant obligations for US broker-dealers: CIP and SARs, Reg S-ID red flags, amended Reg S-P, FINRA 4512 trusted contacts, 2165 holds, ACATS 11870 timing, and the 2026 proposals.
Nacha Rules and ACH RiskNacha rules for ACH fraud teams: key return codes and windows, unauthorized/administrative/overall return rate levels, WEB debit validation, 2024 risk changes and the 2026 fraud monitoring phases.
US Regulatory OverviewHub map of US regulators, rules and network/industry rulebooks that shape transaction fraud programs, organized by money path and entity type, with 2024-2026 changes to watch.

People

NoteSummary
Fraud Analyst Onboarding CurriculumA 30/60/90-day onboarding curriculum for new transaction fraud analysts, sequenced through this vault: money paths, mechanisms, signals, controls, regulation, QA and graduation criteria.
Fraud Team Hiring and Career PathsRoles, levels, interview loops and career ladders for transaction fraud teams: what each role does, how to assess candidates with realistic exercises, and how to grow and retain practitioners.