The Outlier Lab

Building a Fraud Program from Zero

Standing up transaction fraud defenses at a young company: what the first hire should be, a 30/60/90-day plan, the first controls on each money path, and what to defer.

Core components

The first hire

ProfileWhen it fitsRisk
Strategy-minded generalist (SQL, rules, SOPs, comfortable talking to engineers and execs)Most early-stage companies; the defaultMay underinvest in ops scale
Ops leaderHigh manual review volume already exists (marketplaces, receipts, claims)May not build the data and rules foundation
Data scientistLarge clean data, existing ops, clear labelsBuilds models with no labels, governance or deployment path
Compliance hire doubling as fraudRegulated product with small fraud volumeFraud becomes a checklist; slow to respond to attacks

The first hire needs authority as well as skill: access to production data, a path to ship rules without waiting on a sprint, a seat in launch planning, and a named executive sponsor who owns the loss line. See Fraud Operating Model and Fraud Team Hiring and Career Paths.

Priorities in order

  1. Protect money-out. Value that hasn't left can still be saved. Withdrawals, payouts, redemptions and transfers get controls first.
  2. See the losses. One loss ledger, reconciled to finance, tagged by money path and mechanism.
  3. Map reversibility. For each money-in rail, know how long until value is final, and don't let more value leave before then than you can afford to lose.
  4. Get into launches. Every new promo, payment feature and payout option gets a fraud review.
  5. Build response capacity. Kill switches, an on-call, and an incident path.

How to build it

30/60/90-day plan

Diagram: Days 1-30: See and stop the bleeding, Days 31-60: Foundations, Days 61-90: Governance and scale

Days 1–30: see and stop the bleeding

  • Draw the money map: every way value enters, moves and leaves, with rails, timing and reversibility (see Payment Rails Map)
  • Pull 12 months of losses: chargebacks, ACH returns, check returns, refund and claim costs, promo spend, write-offs. Start the loss ledger (see Loss Taxonomy and Attribution).
  • Interview support, finance, payments, growth and engineering: "Where do you think we're losing money?" (see Cross-Functional Partnerships)
  • Read 50–100 confirmed fraud cases end to end. Write down the patterns.
  • Ship quick wins on money-out: holds on payouts to newly added destinations, limits for new accounts, and step-up after account changes (see Withdrawal and Payout Controls, Contact Change Cooling-Off Periods, Velocity and Exposure Limits)
  • Put kill switches on every live promo, or at least a documented way to pause each one fast
  • Set up a basic fraud on-call (even if it's you) and an incident channel (see Fraud Incident Response)

Days 31–60: foundations

Days 61–90: governance and scale

First controls by money path

Money pathFirst controlsMechanisms they address
Card funding / checkoutProcessor risk tools on; 3DS for risky segments; velocity on cards per account and accounts per card; card-testing defensesCard-Not-Present Fraud, Card Testing
ACH fundingAccount ownership verification; funds availability tiered by tenure; limits for new linksACH Funding Fraud, Instant Funding Abuse (Kiting)
Mobile check depositHolds; duplicate detection; limits for new accountsCheck and Mobile Deposit Fraud
Withdrawals / payoutsHolds on new destinations; cooling-off after contact changes; limits by tenurePayout Redirection, Account Takeover (ATO)
P2P / instant sendLimits for new accounts and new payees; scam warningsReal-Time Payment Rail Fraud, Authorized Push Payment (APP) Scams
Promos / referrals / sign-up bonusesPer-identity caps, vesting, clawback terms, budget capsSign-Up Bonus Abuse, Referral Abuse, Promo Code Abuse
Receipts / offers (rewards apps)Duplicate-image detection; per-account submission velocity; review queue for high-value claimsReceipt Fraud (Cashback), Card-Linked Offer Abuse
Refunds / claimsClaim velocity per account; refund-to-original-method; review for high-value claimsRefund and Return Fraud, Buyer Protection Claim Abuse (INR and SNAD)
Login / account changesMFA; breached-password checks; bot management; step-up on contact changeCredential Stuffing, Account Recovery Abuse

Build vs buy at stage zero

  • Buy signals that need cross-industry data (device reputation, email and phone risk, consortium data). You can't build that network effect yourself.
  • Buy or use processor-native rules and scoring to start, unless you have engineers to spare.
  • Build the loss ledger, labels, money map and SOPs. These are yours and no vendor can do them.
  • Defer custom ML until you have labels, volume and someone to monitor the model (see Machine Learning Models, Model Risk Management).

Artifacts and templates

90-day leadership readout outline

  1. Where value moves. The money map
  2. What we're losing. Losses by money path and mechanism, with trend
  3. Exposure. Worst-case loss if the top 3 risks materialize
  4. What we've shipped. Controls, and their estimated loss avoided and friction cost
  5. What's still open. Top risks without adequate controls
  6. Decisions needed. Loss appetite, friction trade-offs, headcount, tooling budget
  7. Next 6 months. Roadmap and target maturity

Day-one questions for the business

  • Which money path would hurt most if it were attacked tonight?
  • Who can pause a promo, and how long does it take?
  • Who approves a new payout method today?
  • What do our payment partners and sponsor bank expect from us on fraud? Do we have it in writing?
  • Where do confirmed fraud cases get recorded today, if anywhere?
  • Which support actions can move or release value?

What to defer (and the risk of deferring)

DeferUntilRisk of deferring
Custom MLLabels and volume existRules become complex; manage with governance
Graph analyticsRing activity becomes materialRing detection is manual and slow
Full second lineRegulatory or partner requirementUse safeguards meanwhile (see Three Lines of Defense)
Dedicated threat intelStage 3Rely on regulators' alerts and peers
Formal champion-challengerEnough volume to measureMeasure with before/after plus a small holdout where you can

Metrics

At stage zero, keep it to a few:

MetricWhy
Net fraud loss by money path (weekly)Are we bleeding?
Loss as bps of volume per money pathNormalizes for growth
Approval / decline rate per money pathFriction check
Manual review volume and SLAOps capacity
Launches reviewed / total launchesProcess coverage
Time to mitigate the last attackResponse capability

Pitfalls

  • Starting with ML. Without labels, governance and a deployment path, the model becomes a science project.
  • Blocking everything. Early fraud leaders under pressure often over-correct. Approval rates crash and the business stops trusting fraud. Lead with holds, limits and step-up before declines.
  • No loss ledger. If finance and fraud disagree on the loss number, every conversation becomes about the number.
  • Ignoring support. Support is often the most exploited control in a young company (see Customer Support Verification Protocols, Support Team Fraud Training).
  • Single-threaded knowledge. Document from day one. The first fraud hire can't be the only person who knows how the rules work.
  • Not getting it in writing. Agree loss appetite and decision rights with the exec sponsor early, before the first incident tests them.

Sources and further reading