The Outlier Lab

Seller-Targeted Scams (Fake Payment and Overpayment)

Scams aimed at sellers, such as fake payment confirmations, overpayment and refund-the-difference schemes, off-platform payment lures and verification-code requests, that make sellers ship goods or send money.

What it is

Most marketplace fraud content is about protecting buyers. Seller-targeted scams flip that around. The victim is the seller, usually an individual or small merchant on a peer-to-peer platform, and the scam exploits the gap between the appearance of payment and its finality.

The FTC warned sellers on online marketplaces in July 2022 about three patterns. First, fake payment notifications from "buyers" who insist on mobile payment apps, often with a claim they overpaid and need a refund. Second, fake check overpayments, where the seller deposits a check for more than the price and sends back the difference. Third, verification-code scams, where a "buyer" asks for a code sent to the seller's phone to hijack their number for other scams. The FTC's warning on checks describes the core mechanic. Banks make deposited funds available quickly, but can take weeks to find a check is fake, and then claw the money back from the victim.

The overpayment pattern is decades old (the FTC described it to sellers in 2004 and 2006) and remains measurable. The FBI's IC3 recorded 2,194 overpayment complaints and about $22.9 million in losses in 2025. Many seller scams are categorized elsewhere (non-payment, advance fee), so the true number is larger.

How it works

Diagram: Scam buyer, Seller, Seller's bank or app

Conceptual families:

FamilyWhat the seller seesWhat's actually happening
Fake payment confirmationEmail, text or screenshot saying payment is "pending" or "held until shipping"No payment exists; the notice is a forgery or an Impersonation Scams lure
Overpayment and refund-the-differenceA check or transfer for more than the price, with a request to return the excessThe inbound instrument is counterfeit, stolen or reversible (Check and Mobile Deposit Fraud, ACH Funding Fraud)
Off-platform steeringBuyer asks to pay or chat outside the marketplaceRemoves platform protection and monitoring
"Upgrade" or fee scamsSeller told to pay a fee to "release" a payment or upgrade an accountAdvance-fee scam aimed at the seller
Verification-code harvesting"Buyer" asks for a code sent to the seller's phoneSeller's number or account is hijacked for other scams
Fake shipping or courier pickupBuyer arranges their own "courier"Goods collected before payment fails
Phishing "payment" linksLink to "receive payment" that captures credentials or card dataLeads into Phishing and Credential Harvesting and ATO

Transaction footprint

The seller's bank, P2P provider or neobank is often the best-placed defender. The scam produces a recognizable funding-then-outbound sequence.

StageWhat you see in the dataDecision point
InboundCheck or transfer deposit from an unfamiliar source, often for an odd amount above typical inflowsApply Funds Availability Holds proportionate to instrument risk
Provisional availabilityFunds shown as available before finalClearly distinguish "available" from "final" in the UI
OutboundShortly after deposit, an outbound P2P, wire, gift card or crypto purchase for roughly the "overpayment" amount to a new payeeReal-time scam scoring; Payee Confirmation and Payment Friction; contextual warning
ReturnDeposited item returned or transfer reversedSeller's account goes negative; loss realized
RecurrenceVictim's account later receives other victims' funds (mule recruitment)Money Mules detection

On the marketplace side:

StageWhat you seeDecision point
MessagingOff-platform contact requests, payment-app insistence, overpayment language, urgencyIn-chat warnings; message classification
AccountBuyer account new; contact details riskyRestrict messaging or listings interaction
TransactionNo on-platform payment recorded despite a "sale"Educate sellers that only on-platform payment counts

Common variants

VariantRailsNotes
Counterfeit check overpaymentCheck and Mobile Deposit Fraud → P2P, wire, gift cardClassic; exploits funds availability
Reversible transfer overpaymentACH, card-funded P2P → irrevocable outboundInbound reversal after outbound sent (Real-Time Payment Rail Fraud)
Fake P2P "pending" noticeNone inbound; goods shippedPure deception; forged notifications
Business or "upgrade" account feeP2P, gift cardSeller pays to "receive" a payment
Verification-code takeoverPhone and account systemsEnables later scams in the seller's name
Wrong-item or SNAD scam against sellerPlatform refundOverlaps Buyer Protection Claim Abuse (INR and SNAD)

Where it shows up

  • Peer-to-peer Online Marketplaces and classifieds: the classic venue; individual sellers lack fraud expertise.
  • Payments and P2P: fake notifications impersonate P2P apps, and outbound refunds go over irrevocable P2P.
  • Neobanks and Consumer Fintech and banks: the deposit and outbound legs; scam victims' accounts may later be used as mules.
  • Retail and Ecommerce: small online merchants receiving bulk "orders" with overpayment.
  • Cross-industry pattern: overpayment is the seller-side version of the provisional-funds problem in Instant Funding Abuse (Kiting) and Check and Mobile Deposit Fraud. In all three, provisional value shouldn't fund irrevocable outflows without friction.

Impact

  • Seller loss: goods plus real money sent out, plus fees and possible negative balances.
  • Bank and provider loss where reimbursement policies or regulation shift liability (see Regulation E and Unauthorized Transfers for the authorized-vs.-unauthorized distinction).
  • Mule-network growth: victims who once moved "overpayments" get recruited, wittingly or not, to move other funds (Money Mules).
  • Platform trust: sellers leave platforms where they feel exposed.
  • Scale signals: IC3 2025 overpayment complaints (2,194; ~$22.9M) and advance-fee complaints (7,762; ~$155.9M), both undercounts of seller-specific harm.

Red flags

Prevention and detection at a glance

LayerControl or signalWhat it does here
PreventCustomer Education and Scam WarningsMarketplace and bank warnings at the moment of risk (off-platform request, deposit-then-send)
PreventFunds Availability HoldsRisk-based availability on checks and reversible inbound
PreventClear "available vs. final" messagingReduces the false confidence scammers rely on
DetectReal-Time Transaction Risk ScoringDeposit-then-outbound scam pattern at the seller's bank or P2P provider
DetectMarketplace message classificationFlags overpayment and off-platform language
RespondPayee Confirmation and Payment FrictionContextual friction and delays on risky outbound payments
RespondCustomer Support Verification ProtocolsSupport recognizes and interrupts scams in progress

Emerging variants and adversary adaptation

  • Generative tools make fake payment confirmations, screenshots and "official" emails easy to produce. Sellers can't be expected to spot them, so verification has to happen in-app ("only trust what you see in your account") (Generative AI and Deepfake Fraud).
  • Real-time outbound payments shrink the window between the scam and the irrevocable loss. Inbound reversibility and outbound finality form the asymmetry scammers exploit (Real-Time Payment Rail Fraud).
  • As marketplaces flag off-platform language, scammers move to images, coded language and multi-step conversations. Combine message signals with financial-side detection at the seller's bank.
  • Scam reimbursement frameworks are changing (see Case Study - UK APP Scam Reimbursement Rules (2024) and Case Study - Zelle Scam Liability Disputes (2024-2025)), which raises financial institutions' incentive to detect seller-side scams.

Real-world examples

  • The FTC's 2022 consumer alert for online sellers describing fake payment notifications, fake check overpayments and verification-code scams.
  • The FTC's earlier warnings on check overpayment: 2004 for classified and auction sellers, and 2006 with the National Consumers League. The same pattern still works two decades later.

Sources and further reading